Initiatives, Partners and Friends – Nov/Dec 2020
Bloomberg Economic Report
Nov 28, 2020
“The work-from-home economy is probably here to stay. Deutsche Bank and Paypal became the latest big employers planning for a hybrid work model. Investors have been slow to warm to U.S. commercial real estate, but in Singapore and Hong Kong, where people have smaller homes and shorter commutes, office buildings are faring better. The work-from-home trend has been a surprise boon for women in India’s huge back-office sector, but in the U.S., dry cleaners are getting crushed.”
Dec 2, 2020
Persistently Peculiar — Entering December, which is the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice extent remains far below average, dominated by the lack of ice on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Arctic Ocean. As was the case for October, air temperatures averaged for November were well above average over much of the Arctic Ocean, notably over open water areas. Averaged for the month, total ice extent for November 2020 was the second lowest in the satellite record.
As reported in our previous post, sea ice extent averaged for October 2020 was the lowest in the satellite record. While extent increased through November as part of the annual cycle of autumn and winter growth, the November average extent of 8.99 million square kilometers (3.47 million square miles), ended up as second lowest in the satellite record for the month, just above 2016. This was 1.71 million square kilometers (660,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average and 330,000 square kilometers (127,000 square miles) above the record low of November 2016. Entering December, extent remains especially low over both the Barents and Kara Seas on the Atlantic side and the Chukchi Sea on the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean.
Through the month of November 2020, sea ice grew by an average of 116,000 square kilometers (44,800 square miles) per day, which is the fastest daily average growth on record for the month, and 46,400 square kilometers (17,900 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average rate. However, growth rates varied greatly through the month. Continuing the pattern for late October, sea ice grew rapidly in the first week of November when the upper ocean lost its remaining summer heat back to the atmosphere and then to outer space. Thereafter, growth rates slowed, with a marked slowdown at the end of the month. Such temporary near pauses in ice growth, however, are not uncommon. As of early December, daily extents were the second lowest in the satellite record, behind 2016. Despite low extent for the Arctic as a whole, the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast is now covered with ice.
Again continuing the pattern for October, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) averaged for November 2020 were above average over much of the Arctic Ocean (Figure 2b). Temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees Celsius (7 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, the northern Barents Sea, and the Laptev Sea. By contrast, temperatures at the 925 hPa level over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago were near average.
These air temperature “hot spots” correspond to areas of open water, where the ocean is still releasing large amounts of heat to the lower atmosphere; temperatures at the surface in these areas are locally more than 12 degrees Celsius (22 degrees Fahrenheit) above long-term November averages. Recall that we addressed this issue in our previous post with the aid of vertical profiles of temperature. However, the prevailing atmospheric circulation pattern for November also played a role—sea level pressure was quite low over the Atlantic side of the Arctic, which coupled with high pressure over northern Eurasia, favored the transport of warm air into the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas (Figure 2c).
Particularly notable about this sea level pressure pattern is that it manifests a return to a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Figure 2d). Recall from a previous post that much of the 2019 to 2020 winter was characterized by a positive AO phase. As of late November 2020, the AO index had regressed back to a neutral phase; whether this is temporary remains to be seen.